Examples
1st Inning Run Scored WagersA real world example was cited above so let's look at it from a couple of different angles. The example was the Padres don't score a lot of runs, bet the NO. As of June 9th, the Padres were in the basement of the National League in run production. Over 64 games they had scored 222 total runs. Over those 64 games they scored a 1st inning run 12 times (19%) A perfect team for the NO wager. Well not so much. The Padres pitchers and defense had given up a 1st inning run in 39% of those 64 games. Thus over 64 games the Padres either scored or gave up a run 42% of the time. Latos alone has given up a run in the first inning 6 times over 11 starts. Another real world example focusing on only one or two parameters would be the case of pitcher Anibal Sanchez of the Florida Marlins. As of early June, Sanchez was sporting an ERA under 3 and a sound win loss record of 5-1. Based on those stats Sanchez looks like a lock NO play against the majority of National League teams. Yet Sanchez had given up a run in the first inning 7 out of 12 appearances for an average just under 60%. Conversely, as of early June Chris Capuano of the NY Mets had a record of 5-6 with an ERA of 4.40. On those stats, Capuano looks like a good choice to give up a first inning tally. In 12 starts he has yet to give up a first inning run. There are many examples of misperceptions when playing this prop bet. BET 1ST INNING digs into the stats to reveal what is actually occurring on a game to game basis.
Over/Under and ATS BetsIf you play an over/under or a -1.5 ATS based on a team's total run production, you will not have the information needed to make an informed wager. For example, if Boston were to score 24 runs in a 2 game set (3 games each, total of 6 games) with say the Rays and the Yankees, you would calculate an average of 4 runs per game. Yet the results from those two series may have been BOS 2, 13, 1 vs Tampa 6, 4, 0 and BOS 0, 6, 2 vs New York 3, 4, 3. BOS may have averaged 4 runs a game over that 6 game span, but they would have only covered 2 of 6 games where the side total was 3.5. BET 1ST INNING will calculate the number of times BOS has covered the 3.5 Side Total for a more accurate account of their season to date.
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